My Thoughts On: Orcas, and an Early Prediction for the 2024 Election

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Let’s get to it.

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On the Rise of Killer Whale Incidences

Orca’s have had enough our shit, apparently.

Orcas, or killer whales, are some of the most intelligent creatures on Earth. They are similar to dolphins in a lot respects, in the same way a US M1 Abrams Battle Tank is similar to say, a mini cooper. They are 6000 pounds, charismatic as hell (see ‘Free Willy’) and armed to the literal teeth. And there’s been a reported rise in orcas actually attempting to sink small ships in the Atlantic ocean.

The most recent case happened off the coast of Shetland, Scotland when an orca repeatedly rammed a seven ton yacht. So far this year, orcas have actually successfully sunk three ships off the coast of Portugal and Spain, which appears to be a hotspot for this type of interaction.

So what’s driving this behavior? Did the killer whale community finally get their hands on a copy of Blackfish? Is this coordinated revenge against Sea World’s transgressions? (if so, deserved, honestly).

There’s a lot of speculation, but one of theories floated is its actually the same pod of juvenile orcas. Like most animals, orcas are prone to imitation of their peers. USA Today recently interviewed Alfredo López, a University of Santiago biologist, and he said:

"Fifteen different orcas from at least three different communities" have been identified, López said. And they are probably teaching the habit [of ramming ships] to others, or the others are mimicking the behavior. "Without a doubt orcas learn by imitation," López said. The majority of the culprits are juveniles that touch, push and sometimes turn the vessels. He noted that adult males don't appear to be involved.”

So it could just be a case of teens being teens. But at the very least, its an interesting trend to keep an eye on. USA Today reports that there’s been a whopping 350 interactions with Orca’s off the cost of Iberia since 2020. Part of this trend is likely a case of media driving more folks to report these types of incidences. But maybe, just maybe, these intelligent creatures have some more nefarious plans up their blowholes.

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On my 2024 Election Prediction

My early 2024 prediction: Donald Trump is almost definitely going to prison, and Joe Biden is going to win re-election.

If the past two presidential cycles are any indication, 2024 is going to be the nuttiest yet; an Avengers: Endgame level plotline full of claims of voter fraud, actual voter suppression, and so much more.

At least, the media is hyping it up to be that way. In reality, I think 2024 could wind up being one of the most predictable outcomes in a long time. Taking a birds eye view of the situation, away from the media’s hype train, points to a relatively easy election night win for Joe Biden. Why is this my prediction? Simple: just look at where the money is going.

Joe Biden presently has raised more money for his re-election campaign than the entire Republican field combined with $72 million in donations from various PAC’s and induvial donors. It’s very early, but here’s what that means and why it matters.

First, it indicates that the usual top Republican donors are actually holding onto their wallets at the moment. And the likely reason, if we were to stand in their shoes, is that the growing list of indictments piling up against Trump point to an inevitable conviction on the horizon. If you’re a top donor, why on earth would you give money to a campaign that looks primed to end up in a jail cell? And if you’re a top donor, and the rest of field makes you shrug your shoulders, then why donate any money at all?

Second, the list of Republican candidates running for election is actually relatively large. What this means is that enough potential candidates believe strongly enough in a Trump conviction that they’ve decided to launch campaigns themselves. For eight years Trump has had a chokehold on the Republican party, but that chokehold may soon come with a pair of handcuffs. If Trump’s legal issues impede his campaign, then there’s a considerably large power vacuum sitting their waiting to be filled. A vacuum filled with piles of political influence and money. So what we’re seeing right now is a a group of Republican candidates jockeying for position. If and when Trump’s campaign ends, there’s going to be a mad sprint for the lead pole position heading into 2024.

Ron DeSantis clearly has the early lead here just based on funds raised. But he, along with the other current candidates, are running some pretty, uh, lukewarm campaigns to say the least.

DeSantis appears to be the most aggressive in trying to grab the backing of Trump’s voter base. However in too many ways he’s placed himself even further right of Trump with draconian abortion restrictions, educational reform that involves teaching kids that slavery somehow actually benefitted slaves, all while being the face of the recent cascade of anti-LGBT policies and rhetoric, as well as setting the record for amount of times a human can say the word “woke” in two minutes; a nonsense word whose definition changes by the day. That’s quite the pile of trashy optics and values to sift through

Mike Pence’s campaign more closely resembles a pseudo-book tour for his recent memoir than an actual political movement. Meanwhile Nikki Haley and Tim Scott have next to no “brand” awareness with the average voter.

And then further down the list we have Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman who believes we should raise the voter age to 25, and Chris Christie, whose strategy is to appeal to the moderate voter by attacking Trump’s worst qualities.

In short, after Trump, the Republican field has the combined charisma of a damp napkin, and campaign policies that appeal to a right-wing voter base who don’t presently seem to be living in the same reality as the majority of the country.

Winning a general election involves appealing, and more apparently engaging the wide ranging political views our country holds. It is in essence the largest quadrennial marketing and PR campaign on earth, which requires A LOT of money to run successfully. Looking at funds raised to-date, the reality is that Republican candidates are being lapped by Joe Biden heading into 2024.

I’m of course biased on this topic, but perhaps not as biased as the big name Republican donors who previously funded Trump’s campaigns, and they appear to be holding quite tightly to their wallets.